Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted its biggest weekly
gain against the euro since the beginning of November as
government reports reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve
will raise interest rates at least two more times.
``I like the dollar higher,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global
head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products Corp.
in Wilton, Connecticut. ``There's relatively sub-par growth out
of Europe, and the U.S. is humming along.''
The dollar had its biggest jump against the euro in five
months on Dec. 20 as the Commerce Department said housing starts
surged last month. A measure of inflation the Fed uses for
forecasts was revised higher this week. The dollar is set for
the first gain since 2001 versus the euro and yen as the gap
between U.S. borrowing costs and Japan and Europe widened.
For the week, the dollar rose 1.3 percent to $1.1865
against the euro at 5 p.m. in New York, according to electronic
foreign-exchange dealing system EBS. It was the biggest gain
since the period ended Nov. 4. The U.S. currency climbed 0.5
percent against the yen to 116.25. It is up more than 13 percent
against each currency this year.
Builders broke ground on 2.123 million homes at an annual
pace, up 5.3 percent from October, the most in seven months, the
Commerce Department said. The agency also said the U.S. economy
grew at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter. It has
expanded by more than 3 percent for 10 straight quarters, the
longest run since the 13 quarters ending March 1986.
``The data continues to be better than expected,'' said
Alan Kabbani, senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in
Charlotte, North Carolina. ``The better data means the interest-
rate spread is going to continue to favor the U.S. dollar.''
Inflation Measure
The Fed has signaled it's unlikely to stop lifting
borrowing costs until the housing market cools. ``Housing and
energy prices continue to be the focus of our attention,'' Fed
Governor Mark Olson said on Dec. 5.
The Commerce Department said on Dec. 21 that the personal
consumption expenditures index, excluding food and energy, was
revised higher to 1.4 percent from the previously reported 1.2
percent in the third quarter. The index was unchanged at 0.1
percent in November from a month prior, a Dec. 22 report showed.
The Fed has raised the benchmark 13 times since June 2004,
to 4.25 percent from 1 percent, to keep inflation in check. The
European Central Bank has raised rates once, to 2.25 percent,
and the Bank of Japan has kept rates near zero since 2001.
Interest-rate futures show there's a 90 percent chance the
Fed will lift its benchmark to 4.50 percent in January. The odds
the Fed will raise it another quarter-point to 4.75 percent in
March rose to 58 percent yesterday from 52 percent a week prior.
`Recovery Path'
The yen's losses this week may have been limited by
speculation the Bank of Japan will end its policy of pumping
cash into the economy, a precursor to raising rates, said
Sharada Selvanathan, a currency strategist in Singapore at BNP
Paribas SA.
``The equity market is doing well and the Japanese economy
is on a solid recovery path,'' she said. ``Reducing money supply
is yen supportive.'' The yen may rise to 105 against the dollar
by the end of 2006, Selvanathan said. The Nikkei-225 Stock
Average is up 38.7 percent this year.
The yen has gained about 3 percent against the dollar this
month as traders have unwound so-called carry trades, where they
had sold low-yielding currencies for higher-yielding ones such
as the U.S. dollar.
The euro was weaker even as reports on Dec. 22 showed
Italian business confidence gained to a three-year high in
December and Belgian business confidence reached its highest
level in 14 months.
Trichet Comments
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, in remarks in Der
Spiegel magazine published two days ago, said policy makers may
raise rates to contain inflation. The European Commission said
Dec. 20 the economy of the dozen nations sharing the euro will
grow about 0.6 percent this quarter.
The yield 10-year U.S. Treasury notes offer over like-dated
German government bonds has increased this year to 1.05
percentage points from 0.53 percentage point at the start of
2005. Over five years that gap has averaged 0.19 point.
``We expect the upward trajectory for the dollar to
continue into next year,'' wrote Benjamin Pedley, an investment
strategist at LGT Bank in Singapore, in a note to clients
yesterday. ``The main factor underpinning the dollar into 2006
will continue to be interest-rate differentials.''
Trading tapered off through the week before the Christmas
weekend and with a holiday in Japan yesterday, said Greg Gibbs,
senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. A
three-day mass transit strike in New York City also left some
firms short-staffed.
``The trading volume must be around a 10th of what's
usual,'' he said yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Michael McDonald in New York at
mmcdonald10@bloomberg.net ;
Rodrigo Davies in London at
rdavies13@bloomberg.net .